詹姆斯?蒙蒂尔(James Montier),著名基金经理,现为GMO资产管理公司资产配置团队成员。此前曾担任法国兴业银行的全球策略联合主席,在汤姆森-埃克斯塔尔(Thomson Extel)年度策略分析师调查中名列前茅。他是英国杜伦大学的访问学者,也是英国皇家社会科学院成员,被媒体誉为特立独行的交易者、传统理论的批判者和具有创新精神的投资家。
他一生信奉的十大信条为他带来了巨大财富。
信条Ⅰ:价值,价值,价值。价值投资是我遇到的唯一安全的方法。通过将安全边际放在过程的核心,价值方法最大限度地降低了为实现增长希望而支付过高费用的风险。
信条Ⅱ:反向操作。约翰·邓普顿爵士观察得出,除非你的做法与大多数人不同,否则没有获得超额收益的可能性。
信条Ⅲ:耐心。耐心是各个水平层级的投资者应具有的必备素质,不管是简单等待肥猪拱门(fat pitch),还是应对过早投资的诅咒,都需要耐心。
信条Ⅳ:莫受教条约束。当某个方法或者某个股票被贴上流行的标签时,我不会轻易认定它会有助于我的投资。我会坦然地从各种类型和地方找到可以投资的机会。
信条Ⅴ:不做预测。我们必须找到投资的方法,但不是依靠人类严重残缺的预言能力。
信条Ⅵ:关注周期。如霍华德·马克思所说,我们不能预测,但是我们可以做好准备。保持对经济、信贷和情绪周期清醒的认识,这能帮助我们做好投资。
信条Ⅶ:不要忘记历史。投资最危险的话就是“这次不一样”。对历史及其背景的认知让你避免再犯前人犯过的大错。
信条Ⅷ:抱持怀疑态度。我崇敬的一个人曾说:“盲从盲信要人命。”学会质疑你听到的,学会批判性思维对于长期投资的成功至关重要。
信条Ⅸ:自上而下与自下而上。我去年的一个重要教训就是要把自上而下与自下而上结合起来。独断专行不会有真知灼见。
信条Ⅹ:像对待自己一样对待客户。任何投资的终极测试是:我是否愿意用我自己的钱进行本次投资?
英文原文:
TenetⅠ:Value, value, value. Value investing is the only safety first approach I havecome across. By putting the margin of safety at the heart of the process, the valueapproach minimizes the risk of overpaying for the hope of growth.
Tenet Ⅱ: Becontrarian. Sir John Templeton observed that ‘It is impossible to producesuperior performance unless you do something different from the majority’.
Tenet Ⅲ: Bepatient. Patience is integral to a value approach on many levels, from waitingfor the fat pitch, to dealing with the value managers’ curse of being tooearly.
Tenet Ⅳ: Beunconstrained. While pigeon-holing and labelling are fashionable, I am far fromconvinced that they aid investment. Surely I should be free to exploit valueopportunities wherever they may occur.
Tenet Ⅴ: Don'tforecast. We have to find a better way of investing than relying upon ourseriously flawed ability to soothsay.
TenetⅥ:Cycles matter. As Howard Marks puts it, we can’t predict but we can prepare. Anawareness of the economic, credit and sentiment cycles can help withinvestment.
Tenet Ⅶ:History matters. The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time isdifferent’. A knowledge of history and context can help to avoid repeating theblunders of the past.
Tenet Ⅷ: Besceptical. One of my heroes said ‘Blind faith in anything will get you killed’Learning to question what you are told and developing critical thinking skillsare vital to long-term success and survival.
Tenet Ⅸ: Betop-down and bottom-up. One of the key lessons from the last year is that bothtop-down and bottom-up viewpoints matter. Neither has a monopoly on insight.
Tenet Ⅹ: Treatyour clients as you would treat yourself. Surely the ultimate test of anyinvestment is: would I be willing to make this investment with my own money?